Pooling, meta-analysis, and the evaluation of drug safety

BACKGROUND: The "integrated safety report" of the drug registration files submitted to health authorities usually summarizes the rates of adverse events observed for a new drug, placebo or active control drugs by pooling the safety data across the trials. Pooling consists of adding the numbers of events observed in a given treatment group across the trials and dividing the results by the total number of patients included in this group. Because it considers treatment groups rather than studies, pooling ignores validity of the comparisons and is subject to a particular kind of bias, termed "Simpson's paradox." In contrast, meta-analysis and other stratified analyses are less susceptible to bias. METHODS: We use a hypothetical, but not atypical, application to demonstrate that the results of a meta-analysis can differ greatly from those obtained by pooling the same data. In our hypothetical model, a new drug is compared to 1) a placebo in 4 relatively small trials in patients at high risk for a certain adverse event and 2) an active reference drug in 2 larger trials of patients at low risk for this event. RESULTS: Using meta-analysis, the relative risk of experiencing the adverse event with the new drug was 1.78 (95% confidence interval [1.02; 3.12]) compared to placebo and 2.20 [0.76; 6.32] compared to active control. By pooling the data, the results were, respectively, 1.00 [0.59; 1.70] and 5.20 [2.07; 13.08]. CONCLUSIONS: Because these findings could mislead health authorities and doctors, regulatory agencies should require meta-analyses or stratified analyses of safety data in drug registration files

Conservative management versus open reduction and internal fixation for mid-shaft clavicle fractures in adults - The Clavicle Trial: Study protocol for a multicentre randomized controlled trial

Background: Clavicle fractures account for around 4% of all fractures and up to 44% of fractures of the shoulder girdle. Fractures of the middle third (or mid-shaft) account for approximately 80% of all clavicle fractures. Management of this group of fractures is often challenging and the outcome can be unsatisfactory. In particular it is not clear whether surgery produces better outcomes than non-surgical management. Currently there is much variation in the use of surgery and a lack of good quality evidence to inform our decision.Methods/Design: We aim to undertake a multicentre randomised controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness and safety of conservative management versus open reduction and internal fixation for displaced mid-shaft clavicle fractures in adults. Surgical treatment will be performed using the Acumed clavicle fixation system. Conservative management will consist of immobilisation in a sling at the side in internal rotation for 6 weeks or until clinical or radiological union. We aim to recruit 300 patients. These patients will be followed-up for at least 9 months. The primary endpoint will be the rate of non-union at 3 months following treatment. Secondary endpoints will be limb function measured using the Constant-Murley Score and the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) Score at 3 and 9 months post-operatively.Discussion: This article presents the protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial. It gives extensive details of, and the basis for, the chosen methods, and describes the key measures taken to avoid bias and to ensure validity.Trial Registration: United Kingdom Clinical Research Network ID: 8665. The date of registration of the trial is 07/09/2006. The date the first patient was recruited is 18/12/2007. © 2011 Longo et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Plantar forefoot pressures in psoriatic arthritis-related dactylitis: an exploratory study

Dactylitis is a common feature of psoriatic arthritis (PsA); local physical trauma has been identified as a possible contributing factor. The aim of this study was to explore differences in forefoot plantar pressures in patients with PsA with and without dactylitis and compare to healthy controls. Thirty-six participants were recruited into three groups: group A PsA plus a history of dactylitis; group B PsA, no dactylitis; group C control participants. Forefoot plantar pressures were measured barefoot and in-shoe at the left second and fourth toes and corresponding metatarsophalangeal joints. Temporal and spatial parameters were measured and data from the foot impact scale for rheumatoid arthritis (FIS-RA), EQ5D and health assessment questionnaire (HAQ) were collected. Pressure time integral peak plantar pressure, and contact time barefoot and in-shoe were not significantly different between groups. Temporal and spatial parameters reported no significant differences between groups. ANOVA analysis and subsequent post hoc testing using Games-Howell test yielded significance in FIS-RA scores between both PsA groups versus controls, A p ≤ 0.0001 and PsA group B p < 0.0001 in the FIS-RA impairment and footwear domain, PsA group A p < 0.03 and PsA group B p ≤ 0.05 in the FIS-RA activity and participation domain compared to controls. This is the first exploratory study to investigate forefoot plantar pressures in patients with and without historical dactylitis in PsA. FIS-RA scores indicate PsA patients have significant limitations compared to controls, although a history of dactylitis does not appear to worsen patient reported outcomes

Pragmatic Randomised Evaluation of Stable Thoracolumbar fracture treatment Outcomes (PRESTO): Study Protocol for a Randomised Controlled Feasibility Trial combined with a qualitative study and survey

Background A thoracolumbar fracture is the most common fracture of the spinal column. Where the fracture is not obviously stable or unstable, the optimal management is uncertain. There are variations between surgeons, treating centres and within the evidence base as to whether surgical or non-surgical approaches should be used. In addition, the boundaries of this zone of uncertainty for stability are unclear. This study has been designed in response to a NIHR HTA commissioning brief to assess the feasibility of undertaking a large-scale trial to evaluate the effectiveness of surgical and non-surgical treatments for thoracolumbar fractures without neurological deficit. Methods Assessment of feasibility will be addressed through three elements: a randomised external feasibility study, a national survey of surgeons and a qualitative study. The external feasibility study is a pragmatic, parallel group, randomised controlled trial comparing surgical fixation (intervention) versus non-surgical management (control). Recruitment will take place in three secondary care centres in the United Kingdom. The primary outcome is recruitment rate, defined as the proportion of eligible participants who are randomised. Further outcomes related to recruitment, randomisation, drop-out, cross-over, loss to follow-up, completeness of outcome data, study processes and details of the interventions delivered will be collected. The survey of surgeons and qualitative study of clinicians, recruiting staff and patients will enhance the feasibility study, enabling a broad overview of current practice in the field in addition to perceived facilitators and barriers to running a full-scale trial. Discussion PRESTO is a feasibility study which aims to inform methodology for a definitive trial comparing surgical fixation with non-surgical management for patients with stable thoracolumbar fractures. Trial registration The trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Register (ISRCTN 12094890). Date of registration was 22/02/2018 (http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN12094890). Keywords Thoracolumbar, fracture, surgical fixation, randomised controlled trial, qualitative, survey, feasibility, pilot

The effect of gender, age, and geographical location on the incidence and prevalence of renal replacement therapy in Wales

BACKGROUND: This study used a cross sectional survey to examine the effect of gender, age, and geographical location on the population prevalence of renal replacement therapy (RRT) provision in Wales. METHODS: Physicians in renal centres in Wales and in adjacent areas of England were asked to undertake a census of patients on renal replacement therapy on 30 June 2004 using an agreed protocol. Data were collated and analysed in anonymous form. RESULTS: 2434 patients were on RRT in Wales at the census date. Median age of patients on RRT was 56 years, peritoneal dialysis 58 years, haemodialysis 66 years and transplantation 50 years. The three treatment modalities had significantly different age-specific peak prevalence rates and distributions. RRT age-specific prevalence rates peaked at around 70 years (1790 pmp), transplantation at around 60 years (924 pmp), haemodialysis at around 80 years (1080 pmp) and peritoneal dialysis did not have a clear peak prevalence rate. Age-specific incidence of RRT peaked at a rate of 488 pmp at 79 years, as did incidence rates for haemodialysis, which peaked at the same age. Age had less effect on the initiation of peritoneal dialysis, which had a broad plateau between the early fifties and late seventies. Kidney transplantation rates were highest in the early fifties but were markedly absent in old age. CONCLUSION: Differences in the provision of RRT are evident, particularly in the very elderly, where the gender difference for haemodialysis is particularly marked. The study illustrates that grouping patients over 75 years into a single age-band may mask significant diversity within this age group. Significant numbers of very elderly patients who are currently not receiving RRT may wish to receive RRT as the elderly population increases, and as technology improves survival and quality of life on RRT. The study suggests that if technologies that are more effective were developed, and which had a lower impact on quality of life, there might be up to a 17% increase in demand for RRT in those aged over 75 years; around 90% of this increased demand would be for haemodialysis

Clinical and cost effectiveness of computer treatment for aphasia post stroke (Big CACTUS): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Aphasia affects the ability to speak, comprehend spoken language, read and write. One third of stroke survivors experience aphasia. Evidence suggests that aphasia can continue to improve after the first few months with intensive speech and language therapy, which is frequently beyond what resources allow. The development of computer software for language practice provides an opportunity for self-managed therapy. This pragmatic randomised controlled trial will investigate the clinical and cost effectiveness of a computerised approach to long-term aphasia therapy post stroke. Methods/Design A total of 285 adults with aphasia at least four months post stroke will be randomly allocated to either usual care, computerised intervention in addition to usual care or attention and activity control in addition to usual care. Those in the intervention group will receive six months of self-managed word finding practice on their home computer with monthly face-to-face support from a volunteer/assistant. Those in the attention control group will receive puzzle activities, supplemented by monthly telephone calls. Study delivery will be coordinated by 20 speech and language therapy departments across the United Kingdom. Outcome measures will be made at baseline, six, nine and 12 months after randomisation by blinded speech and language therapist assessors. Primary outcomes are the change in number of words (of personal relevance) named correctly at six months and improvement in functional conversation. Primary outcomes will be analysed using a Hochberg testing procedure. Significance will be declared if differences in both word retrieval and functional conversation at six months are significant at the 5% level, or if either comparison is significant at 2.5%. A cost utility analysis will be undertaken from the NHS and personal social service perspective. Differences between costs and quality-adjusted life years in the three groups will be described and the incremental cost effectiveness ratio will be calculated. Treatment fidelity will be monitored. Discussion This is the first fully powered trial of the clinical and cost effectiveness of computerised aphasia therapy. Specific challenges in designing the protocol are considered. Trial registration Registered with Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN68798818 webcite on 18 February 2014

A pilot randomised controlled trial of personalised care for depressed patients with symptomatic coronary heart disease in South London general practices: the UPBEAT-UK RCT protocol and recruitment.

ABSTRACT: Background: Community studies reveal people with coronary heart disease (CHD) are twice as likely to be depressed as the general population and that this co-morbidity negatively affects the course and outcome of both conditions. There is evidence for the efficacy of collaborative care and case management for depression treatment, and whilst NICE guidelines recommend these approaches only where depression has not responded to psychological, pharmacological, or combined treatments, these care approaches may be particularly relevant to the needs of people with CHD and depression in the earlier stages of stepped care in primary care settings. Methods: This pilot randomised controlled trial will evaluate whether a simple intervention involving a personalised care plan, elements of case management and regular telephone review is a feasible and acceptable intervention that leads to better mental and physical health outcomes for these patients. The comparator group will be usual general practitioner (GP) care. 81 participants have been recruited from CHD registers of 15 South London general practices. Eligible participants have probable major depression identified by a score of ≥8 on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale depression subscale (HADS-D) together with symptomatic CHD identified using the Modified Rose Angina Questionnaire. Consenting participants are randomly allocated to usual care or the personalised care intervention which involves a comprehensive assessment of each participant’s physical and mental health needs which are documented in a care plan, followed by regular telephone reviews by the case manager over a 6-month period. At each review, the intervention participant’s mood, function and identified problems are reviewed and the case manager uses evidence based behaviour change techniques to facilitate achievement of goals specified by the patient with the aim of increasing the patient’s self efficacy to solve their problems. Depressive symptoms measured by HADS score will be collected at baseline and 1, 6- and 12 months post randomisation. Other outcomes include CHD symptoms, quality of life, wellbeing and health service utilisation. Discussion: This practical and patient-focused intervention is potentially an effective and accessible approach to the health and social care needs of people with depression and CHD in primary care. Trial registration: ISRCTN21615909

A study of target effect sizes in randomised controlled trials published in the Health Technology Assessment journal

BACKGROUND: When designing a randomised controlled trial (RCT), an important consideration is the sample size required. This is calculated from several components; one of which is the target difference. This study aims to review the currently reported methods of elicitation of the target difference as well as to quantify the target differences used in Health Technology Assessment (HTA)-funded trials. METHODS: Trials were identified from the National Institute of Health Research Health Technology Assessment journal. A total of 177 RCTs published between 2006 and 2016 were assessed for eligibility. Eligibility was established by the design of the trial and the quality of data available. The trial designs were parallel-group, superiority RCTs with a continuous primary endpoint. Data were extracted and the standardised anticipated and observed effect size estimates were calculated. Exclusion criteria was based on trials not providing enough detail in the sample size calculation and results, and trials not being of parallel-group, superiority design. RESULTS: A total of 107 RCTs were included in the study from 102 reports. The most commonly reported method for effect size derivation was a review of evidence and use of previous research (52.3%). This was common across all clinical areas. The median standardised target effect size was 0.30 (interquartile range: 0.20-0.38), with the median standardised observed effect size 0.11 (IQR 0.05-0.29). The maximum anticipated and observed effect sizes were 0.76 and 1.18, respectively. Only two trials had anticipated target values above 0.60. CONCLUSION: The most commonly reported method of elicitation of the target effect size is previous published research. The average target effect size was 0.3. A clear distinction between the target difference and the minimum clinically important difference is recommended when designing a trial. Transparent explanation of target difference elicitation is advised, with multiple methods including a review of evidence and opinion-seeking advised as the more optimal methods for effect size quantification